Ed Dearnley

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Individual behaviour could also play a crucial role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This research explored the impact a range of behaviour changes across mobility, food, heating, leisure, and waste would have on Greenhouse Gas emissions. The results show that individuals’ moderate to rigorous behaviour change in the EU could reduce per capita carbon footprint by 6-16%. Three behavioural profiles were used to estimate emission impact from changes in behaviour: Enthusiast, Conscious and Convenient profiles. The benefits from behaviour change would be significant emission reductions and a variety of co-benefits for public health, land use, and regional ecology.

The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has presented scenarios based on observation of impacts from climate change. TRANSrisk combines modelling tools with input from stakeholders to develop climate models by developing an quantified quantitative four stage analysis and gives conclusions from the analysis results for mitigation scenarios.

A significant proportion of Eastern Africa is a relatively poor with a predominately rural population and lack access to modern energy services. Reliance on traditional biomass has created severe problems for both the environment and the health of the population: improved access to cleaner fuels would solve this and achieve multiple policy goals. The Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) is utilised to simulate future scenarios. The study suggests the optimal subsidy policy implementation and recommendations.

Many European countries has committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 80-95% in 2050, relative to 1990 emission levels as part of the Paris Agreement which set an international ambition to combat climate change. Agriculture contributed 13% of the Netherlands’ total greenhouse gas emissions in 2016 from various soruces. Within the livestock sector, GHG emission reductions will need to be viable from an economic perspective but also meet social and environmental standards.

Part of the transformation to meet climate change mitigation goals will be a reduction in GHG emissions from the energy sector in the EU and Member States. This may involve large economic costs, particularly for investments. The ‘carbon bubble’ is a major financial concern, which may arise through the transition into a low carbon economy. Analysis suggests that investors’ risk perceptions of renewables have more of an impact than the perceived risk of fossil fuels.

The transport sector accounts for almost 1/4 of the EU’s total GHG emissions, and decarbonisation of the sector is therefore crucial. The use of electric powered transport is emerging as the most viable near-term solution to reduce CO2 emissions road transport. The falling costs of batteries means that Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) for personal use are becoming more cost competitive, so large potential for Electric Road Systems (ERS) but with substantial uncertainties in costs.

Kenya has committed to reduce domestic GHG emissions by 30% by 2030 but also is attempting to grow its economy against a backdrop of international agreements to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This will mean harnessing the country’s significant renewable energy potential. The study covered three technologies: wind, solar, and the third, geothermal, is more specific to Kenya due to the Great Rift Valley. Overarching areas of interest and policy recommendations are given.

Risks are associated with policies to combat climate change and can be divided into two broad categories: Implementation risks and Consequential risks. TRANSrisk research has shown that the number and nature of risks that can be assessed using economic models is limited. Assessment work generated outcomes at the level of case studies and at meta-level. Shows how assessment of risks and their underlying dimensions changes depending on an expert’s professional background with different stakeholder groups.

Deploying popular renewable energy technologies at scale requires significant amounts of land compared with most fossil fuels. Solar is deployed on rooftops, but increasingly also on agricultural land. Land-use change emissions could be very large if renewable electricity targets are completely met by solar or bioenergy but contains significant regional variability. This study underlines the importance of including land-use impacts in policy assessment, particularly that encourages the large-scale use of solar and bio-energy.