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In this article, heat energy transition pathways in the UK, Germany and Sweden have been compared by evaluating empirical to ideal scenarios. Heat energy transition is the core of the energy transition, as heating is currently the most energy-intensive activity in Europe.

Choices regarding mitigating climate change are associated with a range of risks and uncertainties. By investigating these choices, a broad conceptual framework accounting for exogenous risks, as risks to the implementation of a policy choice, and consequential risks, as risks resulting from an implemented policy, in the areas of political, regulatory, social, economic, and environmental risks was developed.

Policymakers and stakeholders need a manageable tool to reduce the complexity of different design options. The EU-funded POLIMP project has provided a practical criteria matrix to assist policy makers and relevant decision-makers in evaluating and comparing different proposals for the 2015 Agreement. Several important results of the analysis of Parties’ submissions are given.

Renewable energy implementation has advantages but requires the harmonisation of the EU support scheme for renewable energy support policies that may eventually improve policy performance. In addition, cost-effective renewable energy policies require the involvement of all participating actors in the decision processes regarding modifications of support schemes.