Drawing on work from six Horizon Europe projects (ESM2025, ClimTip, TipESM, OptimESM, nextGEMS and RESCUE) and a third policy forum held in September 2025, this Earth System Insights briefing summarises the latest evidence on how human emissions are changing the climate and what this means for mitigation and risk management.
Drawing on work from six Horizon Europe projects (ESM2025, ClimTip, TipESM, OptimESM, nextGEMS and RESCUE) and a third policy forum held in September 2025, this Earth System Insights briefing summarises the latest evidence on how human emissions are changing the climate and what this means for mitigation and risk management. It explores:
A. How can we track progress in the real
world and anticipate risks?
B. How effectively will our actions result in
a peak and decline in global warming?
C. How stable are global climate processes
and what are the global and regional
impacts of climatic instability?
D. Research gaps.
This briefing is the second of a series of policy briefings that address the questions raised during our exchanges with the stakeholder community.
ESM2025
The project goal of ESM2025 is to advance the understanding of the Earth system and its response to human activities. The project aims to develop the next generation of European Earth System Models including a more comprehensive representation of the Earth's response to anthropogenic emissions and human land-use change. The improved models will help to enhance the consistency of climate and mitigation-relevant processes across Earth System and Integrated Assessment models and provide valuable scientific insights to support successful implementation of the Paris Agreement. Results from coordinated simulations with the new models will also provide more robust guidance on future global environmental risks, supporting policies targeting adaptation to global change.Project details
- Project title: “Earth System Models for the Future” (ESM2025)
- Funding scheme: Horizon 2020 (Grant agreement no. 101003536)
- Duration: 4 years (1 June 2021 – 31 May 2025)
- Project coordinator: Météo France-CNRM, France
- Project website: www.esm2025.eu
- Project key messages: ESM2025 key messages for each target audience
- Presentation video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x3evSTOBE18